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| Fed Day Selling Spree as Press Conference Trumps The Dots | ||
| 9/17/2025 3:44 PM | ||
| Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off Of today"s Fed events (rate announcement, dot plot, and press conference), it was the dots that were most likely to cause the biggest reaction. That proved to be the case, but only for the 30 minutes leading up to Powell"s presser. Bo...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates HIGHER (Not Lower) After Fed Rate Cut | ||
| 9/17/2025 2:53 PM | ||
| Several things happen on Fed Day--especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members. The official announcement of a rate cut is typically the least important aspect. In fact, it is usually entirely unimportant in terms of its impact on mortgage rates. Instead, the bonds that determine mortgage rates are...Read More | ||
| Here"s What Changed in The New Fed Announcement | ||
| 9/17/2025 1:00 PM | ||
| Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewh...Read More | ||
| TBA, DPA Tools; HELOC, 2nd, Jumbo, Non-QM News; Union Home/Sierra Pacific Deal | ||
| 9/17/2025 10:41 AM | ||
| Today I find myself in Vancouver, WA, splendid in the autumn, to meet with various mortgage folks and especially the Banner Bank mortgage crew, covering much of the West. Artificial intelligence is on most agendas these days, and I received this note. “I read in your Commentary that AI use in large companies is decreasing. AI is like a GPS. I used ...Read More | ||
| What to Expect From The Fed Today | ||
| 9/17/2025 9:51 AM | ||
| The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any volatility you see at 2pm. A 50bp cut is something that some people have mentioned, but not something that is worth realistically considering. 2pm volatility will primarily be a factor of the dot pl...Read More | ||
| Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues | ||
| 9/16/2025 3:03 PM | ||
| Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues Mortgage rates have lurched rapidly lower in September as 5.0 UMBS have stolen the show from 5.5 UMBS. As a reminder, there is only a certain range of rates allowed in either bucket. 5.5s go all the way up to 6.625% and investors buying MBS would prefer not to get stuc...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Near 3 Year Lows Ahead of Fed | ||
| 9/16/2025 2:18 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates dropped sharply lower today relative to the amount of movement in the underlying bond market with the average lender right in line with the lowest levels since late 2022. Because rates are directly tied to the prices of those bonds, the correlation tends to be almost perfect over time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] But there are always...Read More | ||
| Broker, QC Products; Bank M&A; LOs - Know Your Borrower; Figure"s IPO star Mike Cagney Interview | ||
| 9/16/2025 10:49 AM | ||
| My cat Myrtle was always up for a battle with a lizard in the yard. On a larger scale, the ancient Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu said, “Every battle is won or lost before the battle takes place.” Fed Governor Lisa Cook won the last legal round yesterday in her battle to stay with the Fed. Do you think that companies building a factory in the U.S., as...Read More | ||
| Bonds Easily Clearing Last Pre-Fed Hurdle | ||
| 9/16/2025 9:02 AM | ||
| After last week"s CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning"s Retail Sales report. Whereas CPI was merely on the hotter side of the consensus, Retail Sales came out unequivocally stronger, with the control group hitting the 6.0% mark in year-over-year terms. Even after subtracting...Read More | ||
| Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck | ||
| 9/15/2025 2:47 PM | ||
| Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck Bonds began the week on a stronger note, but not for any glaringly obvious reasons. The same was said about Friday"s weakness, so perhaps we"ll just call it a wash and assume that traders are getting into (or out of) position(s) ahead of this week"s Fed Day. Thus morni...Read More | ||