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| Calmer Start. Uneventful ADP. Waiting on ISM | ||
| 3/4/2026 7:41 AM | ||
| After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. Today"s big ticket data includes ADP Employment and ISM Services. The former is already out (63k vs 50k, with a negative revision about the same size as the beat) and not moving markets. With that...Read More | ||
| Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses | ||
| 3/3/2026 3:36 PM | ||
| Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This played out in phases, with AM weakness followed by a gradual recovery. But it can also be assumed to be playing out at any given moment as bonds listen to the voices arguing in their own mind. One voice s...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Recover Moderately After Starting at 3-Week Highs | ||
| 3/3/2026 2:21 PM | ||
| After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That said, everything"s relative. Even after that "sharp" increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week. There was slightly more cause for concern this morning as the ...Read More | ||
| BBYS, Lead Management, U/W, Processing, Verification Tools; Recapture Webinar; Capital Markets | ||
| 3/3/2026 9:57 AM | ||
| At the L1 Summit, technology is obviously a key segment of many sessions. Tech is helping larger companies in their moves in controlling the borrower funnel. Artificial intelligence (AI) with its pros and cons but hoped-for benefits to productivity and therefore cost reduction, is a common conversation topic. Third party provider offerings are also...Read More | ||
| Heavy Overnight Selling But Inflation Narrative Remains in Doubt | ||
| 3/3/2026 8:47 AM | ||
| Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And there"s stronger correlation with higher oil prices and rising bond yields. So in light of our contrarian take yesterday, are we now forced to acquiesce to the "higher inflation/higher rates" narrativ...Read More | ||
| Big Bad Day For Bonds. What"s Next? | ||
| 3/2/2026 2:41 PM | ||
| Big Bad Day For Bonds. What"s Next? Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlookers are quickly attributing to geopolitics. Specifically, the thought is that higher oil prices imply higher inflation and, thus, higher rates. While some traders probably woke up and decided to sel...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6"s | ||
| 3/2/2026 2:19 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on o...Read More | ||
| HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets | ||
| 3/2/2026 10:54 AM | ||
| In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to ...Read More | ||
| March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran? | ||
| 3/2/2026 8:33 AM | ||
| Spoiler alert: it"s not Iran. And this morning"s yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling." It"s not that bo...Read More | ||
| Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close | ||
| 2/27/2026 3:24 PM | ||
| Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+. In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surpr...Read More | ||