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| Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility | ||
| 9/5/2025 3:44 PM | ||
| Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility The bond market"s reaction to today"s jobs report was a textbook example. The job count was much weaker than expected, though not extreme, and revisions cast further shade on the recent employment trends. Bonds responded with a rally that was equally brisk and...Read More | ||
| A Quick Note on Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds | ||
| 9/5/2025 11:32 AM | ||
| It may seem like today"s bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn"t explain the pace of improvement in mortgage rates. For that, we"d need to consider the arcane underpinnings of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market. These are the bond-like instruments that represent large groups of mortgage debt...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Plummet Back to Fall 2024 Levels | ||
| 9/5/2025 10:51 AM | ||
| It"s a well-known fact that the monthly jobs report is more capable of causing big reactions in rates than any other economic data. It happened last month in grand fashion, and it is happening again this morning. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which is a count of new jobs created, came in at a mere 22k for August versus a median forecast of 75k. Th...Read More | ||
| Bridge Loan, Investment Property, Default Tools; Training and Webinars; Job Data Solidifies Fed Rate Cut? | ||
| 9/5/2025 10:29 AM | ||
| The Fed looks at Twitter to gauge the financial sentiment out there? Yes: TFSI! The Federal Reserve certainly finds itself in a maelstrom these days… it’s as if we have nothing else to talk about. This weekend Robbie and I head to Boise for the Pacific Northwest Mortgage Lenders Conference where I’m sure the Fed and its members will be discussed, a...Read More | ||
| Another Weak Jobs Report. Another Bond Rally | ||
| 9/5/2025 8:07 AM | ||
| It"s a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. The only real caveat is that the unemployment rate suggests a more gentle softening of labor market conditions--a fact that likely accounts for 10yr yields "only" being 6-7bps lower in the first half ho...Read More | ||
| Bonds Positioning For Weaker Jobs Report? | ||
| 9/4/2025 2:54 PM | ||
| Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP? One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the payroll count can go BIG in either direction, regardless of what the other data or labor market trends have been suggesting. Today"s data suggested a predictable level of labor market weakness. This isn"...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Hit Another 2025 Low Ahead of a Potentially Volatile Friday | ||
| 9/4/2025 2:22 PM | ||
| The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 30yr fixed rate down from 6.75 to 6.50 because it came out much weaker than expected (in addition to revising the previous two months lower as well). The shift in the labor market outlook led the mark...Read More | ||
| Corresp. and Wholesale, Credit, AI Asst., Warehouse Products; Events and Training | ||
| 9/4/2025 10:46 AM | ||
| “Apparently you can’t use ‘beef stew’ as a password. It’s not stroganoff.” How’s your privacy? Or another question: Why wouldn’t you tell your recent borrower to freeze their credit after the loan was done? TransUnion has filed data breach disclosures. According to the filings, this data breach, affecting millions of TransUnion customers through Sa...Read More | ||
| Mixed Data. Mixed Reaction | ||
| 9/4/2025 9:33 AM | ||
| Thursday morning"s slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs, but those aren"t really in the "market mover" category). Ironically, almost all of today"s movement happened in the overnight session whereas the mixed data has seen a broadly sideways reaction....Read More | ||
| Straightforward Data-Driven Rally | ||
| 9/3/2025 3:21 PM | ||
| Straightforward Data-Driven Rally It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Trading levels were roughly unchanged in early trading. Friendly Fed comments provided a modest boost, but it was the JOLTS data that clearly set the tone. With job openings hitting the lowest leve...Read More | ||